Cruise lines now have about 40 new ships under construction and ready to come into service by 2012. Many of the new ships are bigger and better than anything that has ever floated before. But is the boom about to go bust with this extra capacity arriving just as the worldwide recession has hit travellers
‘ finances and confidence?

The biggest operator is Carnival Corporation. Their chairman says soaring fuel and steel costs, combined with a weak dollar, have made it virtually impossible to put together a new ship building project beyond 2012 for any of the corporation’s North American cruise brands Carnival Cruise Lines, Princess, and Holland America Line. This gloomy prophecy was made, ironically, at a press conference for the launch of Carnival’s latest ship, Carnival Splendor.

Carnival’s biggest competitor, Royal Caribbean International, appears more optimistic. The company, which includes Royal Caribbean, Celebrity Cruises and Azamara, has placed orders for the largest, most expensive ships ever to be built. Yet it’s hard to imagine that cruise bosses are as positive now as they were when they placed the orders.

Judging by the cut-price offers now being made to entice passengers aboard, over-capacity may already be a big issue. It remains to be seen how long the current economic woes will continue and how deep the recession will become. How will cruise passengers react to all the economic bad news? Will those with money to spare stick with their newly acquired enthusiasm for cruising? Or has much of the recent growth been fuelled by credit that’s running dry?

In mid-2008, the body that represents the leading cruise companies in Britain, the Passenger Shipping Association, forecast around 1.5 million Britons would take a cruise that year. They expect over 2 million British passengers to be cruising by 2012 and point to an increasing number of affluent older people as the key reason for the growth. Those figures may well have to be revised.

The sheer number of cruise passengers has been causing problems in some ports with large cruise ships arriving at the same time, swamping the facilities. Cruise visitors to Barcelona have virtually doubled in the past five years. Figures from MedCruise show a rise from 398,948 in 2002 to 789,409 in 2007. Fortunately, Barcelona, the second most popular Mediterranean port after Naples, is much better placed to deal with the growth, being a large city with good port facilities.

In contrast, the Venice Port Authority has announced plans for a new cruise ship berth costing £75 million. It is needed to accommodate 1,000 foot monsters such as Genesis, operated by Royal Caribbean, which can carry 6,000 passengers.

Ship numbers and sheer ship size, have brought other problems. Local businesses often do not benefit as passengers have less time to roam around thanks to the longer time spent disembarking and re-embarking. In addition many passengers now go on organised pre-booked tours which means less chance of local shopping and fewer meals taken at local restaurants.

Over the next year or so these are the type of concerns that cruise operators would probably love to be dealing with. But filling these monster ships in a recession might be a much bigger problem. There could be some real bargains on the market very soon.

1. The busiest season has always been January through March. This is when the cruise industry books the most cruises. Cruise lines usually make about 38 percent of their yearly sales at this time. This is the best time to find many hot or last minute deals because they offer a lot of incentives.

2. Make sure to start well ahead of your vacation or holiday time if you can unless you want a last minute cruise deal. First of all you should call the cruise line you are most interested in and ask for the cruise line rep about any of their cruises and the staterooms. You can ask about handicapped-equipped staterooms then if this is a special need. You can always do this later after you do some research too.

Find out what specials they have running and make sure to tell them how old you are and what state you live in or if you’re traveling with a group of people or another couple or have cruised with their cruise line in the past. Does it include your airfare? Do you need a family deal? This is because your specific situation may entitle you for big discounts. Take whatever the quote given to you by the cruise line rep as your starting price point.

3. Next check out the Sunday newspaper ads in the travel section and look for cruise bargains. The bigger city newspapers and the newspapers located in or near cruise embarkation cities are great for finding good or cheap cruise deals. You can go to your local library to view the ads if they carry those news papers. Some daily newspapers even have there travel ads online.

4. Take a look at the cruise booking Web sites. There are cruise discount agencies that may have the cheapest cruise rates to be found anywhere, whether you want a luxury cruise or budget cruise. Huge travel Web sites such as Orbitz, Expedia and Travelocity usually have great deals too. You can also find last-minute cruise deals too. The cruise Web sites’ prices are usually fairly similar. And the travel sites are usually similar but somewhat higher. Make sure to ask about any additional, secret or hidden fees, such as cancellation penalties. These can cost between $40 and $85.

5. Make sure to check with your cruise travel agent. Some people prefer to work with a travel agent or are not savvy about researching online. Find out if they charge a consulting fee before you meet. Some fees are usually refundable if they book your cruise. When you get together with the travel agent, say exactly what you want and that you’re comparing prices. Your local travel agent can be very helpful if you have disabilities, health problems, special needs or need visas or other documents.

6. Think about placing a “cruise wanted” ad on Craigslist online. Be specific and detailed about what you want. Then sit back and wait for replies.

7. Once you have a number of cruise line or cruise package quotes compare them and try to negotiate a lower price, extra discounts or some onboard extras.

Note that if you’re getting the same quote from your travel agent that you’re getting from the cruise line then you need to continue shopping for the best quote – your travel agent isn’t saving you any money. The best cruise deal is out there that is just right for you and will save you money on your vacation too regardless if you’re going to Alaska, Mexico, the Caribbean, Hawaii, the Bahamas, or Bermuda. You just need to do a little research and don’t take the first deal you see.